Round table discussion, business conference or presentation

1 - 2 December 2025 | Colombo Theatre, UNSW

2025 Australasian Actuarial Education and Research Symposium

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About

The Australasian Actuarial Education and Research Symposium (AAERS) is a prestigious international conference that brings together a diverse community of researchers, educators, industry practitioners, and research students from around the world.

This annual event serves as a vital platform for sharing cutting-edge research, fostering dialogue, and advancing knowledge in actuarial education and research.

The School of Risk and Actuarial Studies at UNSW Business School is proud to host AAERS 2025 at the UNSW Kensington Campus. AAERS 2025 promises to be an enriching and engaging experience. Attendees can look forward to keynote presentations from leading experts in the field, alongside a diverse program of sessions covering a wide range of topics in actuarial research and education. The symposium offers valuable opportunities for learning, collaboration, and networking in a dynamic academic and professional environment.

As part of our ongoing support for the next generation of actuarial researchers, AAERS 2025 will feature a Best Presentation Prize for PhD students sponsored by the Actuaries Institute.

This award recognises outstanding research quality, clarity of communication, and academic impact. Eligible PhD students will be judged by a panel of academic and industry experts during their presentation sessions.

Keynote speakers

Susan Thorp

Professor

Discipline of Finance, The University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

Peng Shi

Professor

Department of Risk and Insurance, Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Win-Li Toh

Principal

Taylor Fry and President of the Actuaries Institute of Australia

Severine Arnold

Professor

Department of Actuarial Science at the University of Lausanne

Program

Download the program

Monday
Tuesday

Severine Arnold

Professor, Department of Actuarial Science at the University of Lausanne

Dialog

Severine Arnold

Professor

Department of Actuarial Science at the University of Lausanne

Séverine Arnold has held several influential roles in actuarial and public policy circles, including serving as a representative for the Swiss Confederation on the Suva Council (2020–2023) and contributing expert insight to the Federal Statistical Office on pension system data (2016–2017). She was an active member, and Vice-Chair, of the Life Section Committee of the International Actuarial Association (2014–2022) and participated in the HEC Research Commission Working Group (2019–2024), advancing academic excellence in Switzerland.

Chair: Katja Ignatieva, UNSW Sydney
Session 1A: Mortality Modelling I

Colombo A

Chair: Han Lin Shang, Macquarie University

11:00 - 11:20: Forecasting Age Distribution of Deaths Across Countries: Life Expectancy and Annuity Valuation

Han Lin Shang, Macquarie University

11:20 - 11:40: Gradient Boosted multi-population mortality modelling with high frequency data

Ziting Miao, University of Melbourne

11:40 - 12:00: Comparing Evaluation Metric for Individual- Level Mortality Forecasting via Models with Applications to Neural Network Frameworks

Xiaochuan Lu, UNSW Sydney

12:00 - 12:20: Dynamic Mortality Forecasting via Mixed-Frequency State Space Models

Runze Li, The University of Melbourne

Session 1B: CAT Bonds & Risk Transfer

Colombo B

Chair: Maochao Xu, Illinois State University

11:00 - 11:20: Crypto CAT Bonds: A Framework for Transferring Catastrophic Blockchain Risk to Capital Markets

Maochao Xu, Illinois State University

11:20 - 11:40: Design and Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds for Pandemic Risk Transfer

Chang Zhai, University of Melbourne

11:40 - 12:00: Better Prices, Better Decisions: A New Approach to CAT Bond Premiums

Yufan Lu, University of Melbourne

12:00 - 12:20: Catastrophe Risk Sharing with Insurance Levy Under Distorted Probabilities

Yiying Zhang, Southern University of Science and Technology, China

Session 1C: Portfolio Optimisation & Risk Methods

Colombo C

Chair: Liyuan Lin, Monash University

11:00 - 11:20: Diversification Quotient Based on Expectiles

Liyuan Lin, Monash University

11:20 - 11:40: Robust Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection Problem with Logarithmic Returns in a Non-Markovian Environment

Ge Wang, Beijing University of Posts and Tele-communications

11:40 - 12:00: Dynamic TelematicsBased Risk Scoring via FactorAugmented Integer-Valued Time Series with Machine Learning Offsets

Xindi Fang, University of Melbourne

12:00 - 12:20: Continuous-time Reinforcement Learning for Robust Portfoio Optimisation

Tetian Madfouni, UNSW Sydney
Session 2A: Mortality Modelling II

Colombo A

Chair: Jean-Francois Begin, Simon Fraser University, Canada

13:30 - 13:50: Modelling Seasonal Mortality: An age-period-cohort Approach

Jean-Francois Begin, Simon Fraser University, Canada

13:50 - 14:10: Forecasting Mortality: Leveraging Cause-of-Death Data Through Fully Connected Neural Network.

Dion Krisnadi, University of Lausanne

14:10 - 14:30: What KAN Mortality Say: Smooth and Interpretable Mortality Modeling Using Kolmogorov – Arnold Networks

Yuan Zhuang, UNSW Sydney

14:30 - 14:50: Towards Fairer Retirement Outcomes: Health-Related Mortality Modelling

Pramo Samarasinghe, AGA

Session 2B: Climate Change & Risk I

Colombo B

Chair: Rui Zhou, University of Melbourne

13:30 - 13:50: Climate-driven Coastal Inundation and Victorias Land Transfer Duty Risk

Rui Zhou, University of Melbourne

13:50 - 14:10: Climate Risk Stress Testing for the Agricultural Sector

Yaxiao Liu, UNSW Sydney

14:10 - 14:30: Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Reinsurance Cycles: A Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) Approach

Yanfeng Li, UNSW Sydney

14:30 - 14:50: Refining Vulnerability Assessment in Catastrophe (CAT) Models with Distributional Regression: Application to Flood Damage Forecasting

Zherui Li, UNSW Sydney

Session 2C: Risk Theory & Distributions I

Colombo C

Chair: Katja Ignatieva, UNSW Sydney

13:30 - 13:50: Quantile Connectedness, Tail Spillovers, and Systemic Risk Across Energy and Financial Markets

Katja Ignatieva, UNSW Sydney

13:50 - 14:10: Fairness Testing for Insurance Pricing: A Statistical Inference Framework

Fei Huang, UNSW Sydney

14:10 - 14:30: Inhomogeneous Phase-type Modelling using Neural Network

Mohammad Hossein Nezha, UNSW Sydney

14:30 - 14:50: On the Sum of Lindley Random Variables: Implications of Risk Theory

Enrique Calderin, University of Melbourne
Susan Thorp

Professor, Discipline of Finance, The University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

Dialog

Susan Thorp

Professor

Discipline of Finance, The University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

Susan Thorp is a Professor of Finance in the Business School. She has previously held positions at the University of Technology Sydney and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Susan has an honours degree in Economics from the University of Sydney, and a PhD in Economics from the University of New South Wales.

Chair: Katja Hanewald, UNSW Sydney
Session 3A: Longevity Risk & Retirement Income

Colombo A

Chair: Lingfeng Lyu, CEPAR, UNSW

16:30 - 16:50: Financing Aged Care with Home Equity Allowing for Government Age Pension and Aged Care Support

Lingfeng Lyu, CEPAR, UNSW Sydney

16:50 - 17:10: What Should Investment Models Say about Superannuation Returns and Asset Price Inflation

Anthony Asher, UNSW Sydney

17:10 - 17:30: Longevity Risk-Sharing Programs Around the World

Gayani Thalagoda, UNSW Sydney

17:30 - 17:50: Protection, Flexibility, and Bequests Seniors’ Retirement Income Preferences Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment

Hengzhe Zhao, Macquarie University

Session 3B: Climate Change & Risk II

Colombo B

Chair: Jae Kyung Woo, UNSW Sydney

16:30 - 16:50: Cointegration Analysis of Crop Yields and Extreme Weather Factos using Actuaries Climate Index with Application of Bonus-malus System

Jae Kyung Woo, UNSW Sydney

16:50 - 17:10: Climate Risks and Their Influence on Environmental Beliefs and Actions Across Australia

Matteo Malavasi, UNSW Sydney

17:10 - 17:30: Bayesian Learning of Regional Economic Impacts of Climate Change

Shawn Yang, UNSW Sydney

17:30 - 17:50: Measuring Systemic Climate Risk in Insurance

Eugenia Fang, UNSW Sydney

Session 3C: Insurance Pricing and Product Design

Colombo C

Chair: Alan Xian, UNSW Sydney, Taylor Fry Consulting

16:30 - 16:50: Beyond our Means? – A Distributional Approach to Actuarial Reserving

Alan Xian, UNSW Sydney, Taylor Fry Consulting
Calise Liu, Finity Consulting and Andrew Song, Taylor Fry Consulting

16:50 - 17:10: An Interpretable Deep Learning Model for General Insurance Pricing

Tu Pho, UNSW Sydney

17:10 - 17:30: Reimagining Mental Health Insurance: CoDesigning Inclusive Product Solutions for Australia

Alyona Berkovich, UNSW Sydney

17:30 - 17:50: Composite Distributions and their Associated Risk Measures for Auto-mobile Insurance Claims Data

Williams Kumi, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Ghana

Peng Shi

Professor, Department of Risk and Insurance, Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Dialog

Peng Shi

Professor

Department of Risk and Insurance, Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Peng Shi is a professor in the Risk and Insurance Department at the Wisconsin School of Business. He is also the Charles and Laura Albright Professor in Business and Finance. Professor Shi is an Associate of the Casualty Actuarial Society (ACAS) and a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA). He holds a Ph.D. in business with a minor in economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Chair: Qihe Tang, UNSW Sydney
Session 4A: Behavioural & Systemic Finance

Colombo A

Chair: Eric Ulm, Victoria University, Wellington

10:00 - 10:20: Risk and Time Preferences: Implications from Consumption Optimization

Eric Ulm, Victoria University of Wellington

10:20 - 10:40: Pricing Carbon Emissions Permits Under the Cap-and-Trade Policy

Ryan Dai, UNSW Sydney

10:40 - 11:00: How do Individuals Learn about Investments in Self-Insurance and Self-Protection Over Time?

Sophie Ma, UNSW Sydney

11:00 - 11:20: Value of Reorganisation

Zhen Dong Chen, UNSW Sydney

Session 4B: Pension Finance & CDC

Colombo B

Chair: Ping Chen, University of Melbourne

10:00 - 10:20: Optimal Investment-benefit Allocation for a Collective Defined Contribution Plan with Guaranteed Replacement Ratio

Ping Chen, University of Melbourne

10:20 - 10:40: Can Improving Longevity Literacy Motivate Interest in Life Annuities?

Jaimin Yan, UNSW Sydney

10:40 - 11:00: Improving Pension Welfare through a Reinvestment Option

Darcy Harcourt, Victoria University of Wellington

11:00 - 11:20: No Abstract to be presented, please move to Colombo A or C

Session 4C: Risk Theory & Methods II

Colombo C

Chair: Colin Priest, UNSW Sydney

10:00 - 10:20: Turning Bloom Upside Down: Actuarial Education in the Age of Automatable Modelling

Colin Priest, UNSW Sydney

10:20 - 10:40: Capitol Allocation and Tail Central Moments for the Multivariate Normal Mean-variance Mixture Distribution

Soon Wei Tan, University of Melbourne

10:40 - 11:00: Uncertainty-Aware Neural Networks for Actuaries

Tian (Eric) Dong, UNSW Sydney

11:00 - 11:20: Stochastic Dominance for Linear Combination of Infinite-Mean Risks

Yuyu Chen, University of Melbourne
Session 5A: Longevity & Annuities

Colombo A

Chair: Katja Hanewald, UNSW Sydney

11:30 - 11:50: Cohort Trends in Intrinsic Capacity in Europe

Katja Hanewald, UNSW Sydney

11:50 - 12:10: Decumulation Strategy with Long-Term Care Insurance and Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit

Yuxin Zhou, UNSW Sydney

12:10 - 12:30: Optimal Hedging of Longevity Risks for Group Self-Annuity Portfolios

Yawei Wang, UNSW Sydney

Session 5B: Reserving & Insurance Pricing

Colombo B

Chair: Greg Taylor, UNSW Sydney

11:30 - 11:50: Chain Ladder is not Preserved Under Aggregation of Calendar Periods

Greg Taylor, UNSW Sydney

11:50 - 12:10: Chain ladder and Data Granularity

Greg Taylor, UNSW Sydney

12:10 - 12:30: Operations, Risks, and Insurance for EV-Sharing Systems

Sizhe Chen, Macquarie University

Session 5C: Telematics & Claims Modelling

Colombo C

Chair: Eric C.K Cheung, UNSW Sydney

11:30 - 11:50: Modelling Discrete Common-shock Risks through Matric Distribitions

Eric C.K Cheung, UNSW Sydney

11:50 - 12:10: Correcting Credibility Premiums using Integrated CANN with Telematics Data

Mohamed Hanafy Kotb Ibrhim, UNSW Sydney

12:10 - 12:30: Optimal Relativities in a Nonus-Malus System under Frequency-severity Dependence and Different Objective Functions

Kelvin Tang, UNSW Sydney
Win-Li Toh

Principal, Taylor Fry and President of the Actuaries Institute of Australia

Dialog

Win-Li Toh

Principal

Taylor Fry and President of the Actuaries Institute of Australia

Win-Li Toh is a Principal at Taylor Fry and President of the Actuaries Institute of Australia, with over 25 years of international experience spanning Australia, New Zealand, and the UK. Renowned for her collaborative leadership and expertise in insurance, she’s a trusted voice on issues like cyber risk, climate resilience, and customer fairness.

Chair: Michael Callan, The Actuaries Institute of Australia